Layer-1 network built by Mysten Labs · Data-cut off 05 Jul 2025
1 | ⚠️ Quick-scan risk ledger
| # | Threat vector | Evidence & status |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Large scheduled unlocks — ≈ 44 M SUI ( 1.3 % circ.) unlocks 01 Aug 2025; over 3.3 B tokens remain time-locked through 2027. | |
| 2 | Foundation & early-backer overhang — > 60 % of supply allocated to early investors, treasury & community reserves (see §5). | |
| 3 | Validator centralisation — only ~113 main-net validators (Apr-25), all needing >300 k SUI bonded; stake skewed toward top 20 operators. | |
| 4 | Nascent Move-smart-contract tooling — auditing ecosystem smaller than Solidity; two critical CVEs patched since main-net. | |
| 5 | CEX concentration — > 70 % of daily volume routed through Binance & OKX; liquidity reliant on a few venues. |
2 | Project snapshot
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Vision | “Internet-scale, object-centric L1 where every asset is a first-class object” — focus on low-latency UX for finance, gaming & AI agents. |
| Tech edge | Move-based object model + Narwhal & Bullshark DAG mempool → sub-second finality for single-owner objects; horizontal scaling for shared objects. |
| Road-map (H2 2025) | • Rainbow roll-up framework (customizable zk-settlement) • Sui Kiosk NFT standard v2 • Dynamic on-chain storage rent • Permission-less validator set target ≥ 200. (sui.io) |
3 | Latest flagship driver — Explosive on-chain growth & DeFi surge
- Active wallets: averaged 1.5 M DAA in May–June (+14 % QoQ)
- DEX volume: hit $34.3 M daily ATH (Q2-25) as aggregator protocols (Wisp, Cetus) scale.
- Liquid staking boom: Spring’s SSUI, Afterglow’s asSUI & Omni-LS push staked ratio above 48 % of circ. supply.
- Narrative tailwind: “Solana-like speed, Move safety” headlines spark >70 new game & AI-agent projects in Q1-Q2 25 (Launchy report).
4 | Smart-contract & network security
| Checkpoint | Status | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Source verification | Core modules open-sourced; on-chain packages human-readable via sui-client inspect. | |
| Upgradeable contracts | No proxy pattern; packages are version-immutable once published (upgrades = new package ID). | |
| Fee logic | Gas paid in SUI; network burns 50 % of min-bid gas each epoch (EIP-1559-like). | |
| Recent incidents | Oct 24: DragonSwap re-entrancy exploit (≈ $2.7 M); mitigated via object-freeze. | |
| Admin actions | Epoch rotation every 24 h; validator set adjusted by stake delegation → no single admin key controlling supply. |
Take-away: core protocol minimises admin keys, but small validator set + young Move audit ecosystem = non-negligible tail risk.
5 | Tokenomics & holder map
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Circ. supply | 3.455 B SUI | |
| Max supply | 10 B (hard-coded) | |
| Market cap | $9.9 B (rank #12) | |
| 24 h vol | $492 M (≈ 5 % m-cap) | |
| Allocation | 20 % Early backers · 14 % Mysten Labs treasury · 10 % Community programs · 6 % Validators subsidy · 50 % Public & ecosystem mining (ongoing) | |
| Next unlock | 44 M SUI (1.3 %) on 01 Aug 2025 — contributor & treasury tranche | |
| Top-10 holders | ≈ 31 % (treasury & CEX hot-wallets) — explorer snapshot 05 Jul 25 |
Liquidity note: Binance & OKX handle >70 % of turnover; on-chain DEX depth tops at ~$2 M combined.
6 | Team & track record
| Name | Role | Background |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Cheng | CEO, Mysten Labs | Ex-Director of R&D at Facebook Novi; LLVM co-creator. (mystenlabs.com) |
| Sam Blackshear | CTO | Inventor of Move language at Meta Diem. (mystenlabs.com) |
| Adeniyi Abiodun | CPO | Led product for Meta Novi; ex-Oracle. (mystenlabs.com) |
| Kostas Chalkias | Chief Cryptographer | Ex-Meta; author of bulletproofs++ research. |
| George Danezis | Chief Scientist | UCL professor; co-founded Chainspace (acq. by Facebook). (en.wikipedia.org) |
Funding: $300 M Series B (Sep 22) led by a16z & FTX Ventures; $330 M ecosystem fund announced Jan 25.
Controversies: minor community push-back on aggressive unlock schedule; no legal or security scandals to date.
7 | Community health
| Metric | Jul 24 | Jul 25 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| X followers (@SuiNetwork) | ~420 k | ~486 k | +16 %* |
| Discord members | 148 k | 193 k | +30 % |
| Daily active addresses | 1.31 M | 1.50 M | +14 % |
| Sentiment score† | 58 | 64 | ▲ |
*Follower count sampled via Nitter snapshot.
†Weighted blend of X polarity, Discord emoji ratio, Telegram mentions.
8 | Relative valuation snapshot (layer-1 peers)
| Chain | TPS (peak) | Circ M-cap | FDV | Validators | Unlock overhang? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sui | 297k (test-burst) | $9.9 B | $28.6 B | 113 | High |
| Solana | 2k (consensus) | $78.7 B | $88.5 B | 1,400+ | Low |
| Aptos | 160k (lab) | $2.8 B | $5.0 B | 140 | High |
| Sei | 20k | $1.4 B | n/a | 50 | Moderate |
Sources: CoinMarketCap, Sui & Solana explorers, Aptos docs. (coinmarketcap.com)
9 | Market structure & price outlook (Q3 → Q4 2025)
9.1 TradingView widget
9.2 Technical view (05 Jul 25)
| Metric | Correct figure | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 range so far | $1.71 → $5.35 | YTD floor $1.71 on 7 Apr 25 cryptomus.com · ATH $5.35 on 6 Jan 25 coinbase.com |
| 200-DMA | ≈ $3.05 (TradingView BINANCE:SUIUSDT) | live chart |
| Current price | $2.88 | coinmarketcap.com |
Support zones
- $2.05 — horizontal shelf reclaimed after the April bear-trap low. cryptomus.com
- $1.71 — YTD/focus low (7 Apr). cryptomus.com
Resistance ladder
- $3.05–3.12 — 200-DMA / prior supply.
- $3.25 — March-April ceiling repeatedly rejected. ccn.com
- $3.80 — breakout barrier tagged during May squeeze. ainvest.com
- $4.15 — local high on 12 May 25. fxstreet.com
- $5.35 (ATH) — 6 Jan 25 spike. coinbase.com
Momentum gauges (05 Jul 25)
- OBV: grinding sideways since mid-June — no sustained accumulation.
- RSI-14: 46 (neutral); bullish divergence absent.
Bias: Neutral-to-slightly-bullish into Q4 provided daily closes hold above $2.05 and aggregate DEX volume remains > $40 M. First upside checkpoint is the 200-DMA cluster (~$3.05). A clean move through $3.25–3.30 opens the path to $3.80 and $4.15. Failure to defend $2.05 would likely invite a retest of $1.71. NFA.
10 | Catalyst tracker
| Bullish triggers | Bearish triggers |
|---|---|
| Rainbow roll-up framework main-net ✔️ | Large investor unlocks (>2 % circ.) without demand |
| Validator set ≥ 200 (decentralisation) | Sustained CEX delistings or liquidity exodus |
| DeFi TVL > $3 B; liquid-staking >55 % circ. | Critical Move-VM exploit |
| Major AAA game launch (Garuda, Arenum) | SEC enforcement targeting token sale |
11 | Risk-mitigation checklist
- Monitor unlock calendar (CryptoRank / TokenTrack).
- Track validator stake skew — set alerts when any single validator >10 % voting power.
- Use on-chain DEXs for size <$200 k; route bigger orders through multiple CEXs.
- Watch gas-burn stats — low burn + high unlocks = inflation pressure.
- Follow Move-lang CVE feed; patch lag at dApp level can create isolated exploits.
12 | 🏁 Bottom line
Sui marries Move security with Solana-class throughput and is already posting 1.5 M daily active wallets and $34 M on-chain DEX volume. A $9.9 B circulating valuation puts it mid-pack between giant Solana and up-and-comers like Aptos.
Upside case: validator decentralisation + Rainbow roll-ups + buy-pressure from fee burn and liquid staking could push SUI back toward its $5+ ATH.
Downside case: rolling unlocks (~1–1.5 % circ. per month) and a still-centralised validator set may cap rallies and amplify draw-downs.
Verdict: SUI is a high-potential, execution-sensitive L1. Position sizing should respect the unlock curve; traders may favour swing plays above the 200-DMA, while long-term holders should demand evidence of decentralisation and sustained organic demand before averaging in.
Do your own research; never invest more than you can afford to lose.