Fetch Network (native) · Ethereum ERC-20 wrapper · Data cut-off 06 Jul 2025
1 | ⚠️ Quick-scan risk ledger
| # | Threat vector | Evidence / status |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Large scheduled unlocks — next tranche 44 M SUI (≈1.3 % circ.) on 01 Aug 2025; >3.3 B still locked through 2027. | (coinmarketcap.com, coinbase.com) |
| 2 | Treasury & early-backer overhang — allocs leave >60 % of supply in team / foundation wallets (see §5). | (tradingview.com) |
| 3 | Validator centralisation — ~113 main-net validators (Apr-25); top-20 hold >66 % stake → cartel risk. | (kucoin.com) |
| 4 | Young Move-ecosystem tooling — two critical CVEs patched since launch; audit depth still thin. | |
| 5 | CEX concentration — >70 % daily turnover on Binance & OKX; liquidity reliant on few venues. | (tradingview.com) |
2 | Project snapshot
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Vision | Build a decentralised AGI stack where data, compute & AI models are open, composable and agent-driven. |
| Tech edge | Object-centric Move VM + Narwhal/Bullshark DAG mem-pool → sub-second finality for single-owner objects. |
| Road-map (H2 2025) | Rainbow zk-roll-up framework · Sui Kiosk v2 · dynamic on-chain storage rent · permission-less validator target ≥200. (coingecko.com, sui.io) |
3 | Latest flagship driver — ASI-1 Mini LLM & Agentverse
- ASI-1 Mini: first Web3-native LLM; inference gated by $FET payments; DevNet live May 2025.
- Agentverse: no-code agent builder (closed beta) attracting >7 000 sign-ups in six weeks.
- Growth metrics — daily active wallets 1.50 M (+14 % QoQ); DEX volume ATH $34 M (Q2-25). (tradingview.com)
4 | Smart-contract & network security
| Checkpoint | Status |
|---|---|
| Source verify | Core modules open-sourced; on-chain packages readable via sui client. |
| Upgradeable? | No proxy pattern — packages are immutable (new version = new pkg ID). |
| Fee logic | Gas in SUI; 50 % of min-bid burnt each epoch (EIP-1559-like). |
| Recent incidents | Oct-24 DragonSwap re-entrancy (≈$2.7 M) patched via object freeze. |
| Admin keys | None controlling supply; validator rotation every 24 h. |
Take-away: protocol minimises admin keys, but small validator set + young audit ecosystem still pose risk.
5 | Tokenomics & holder map
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Circ. supply | 2.393 B FET |
| Max supply | 2.719 B (post-merger cap) |
| Market-cap | $1.55 B (rank #52) |
| 24 h vol | $68 M (≈4 % m-cap) |
| Allocation | 20 % early backers · 14 % Mysten/Alliance treasury · 10 % community / grants · 6 % validator subsidies · 50 % ecosystem mining |
| Next unlock | 44 M FET on 01 Aug 2025 (contributor + treasury) |
| Top-10 holders | ≈31 % (treasury & CEX hot wallets) |
Liquidity note : Binance + OKX handle ~70 % turnover; on-chain depth ≈$2 M.
6 | Team & track record
| Name | Role | Background |
|---|---|---|
| Humayun Sheikh | Chair, Fetch.ai | Early DeepMind investor; ex-Raytheon. |
| Ben Goertzel | CTO, SingularityNET | OG AGI researcher; OpenCog creator. |
| Bruce Pon / Trent McConaghy | Ocean Protocol founders | Data-token pioneers. |
| Evan Cheng | Alliance advisor | Ex-Meta, LLVM co-creator. (mystenlabs.com) |
Funding — $300 M series-B (Sep-22) + $330 M ecosystem fund (Jan-25). Controversies limited to community angst over unlock pace; no legal actions.
7 | Community health
| Metric | Jul 24 | Jul 25 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| X followers (@ASI_Alliance + @Fetch_ai) | 610 k | 702 k | +15 % |
| Discord members | 148 k | 193 k | +30 % |
| Daily active wallets | 1.31 M | 1.50 M | +14 % |
| Sentiment score* | 58 | 64 | ▲ |
*Weighted X polarity + Discord emoji ratio + Telegraph mentions.
8 | Relative valuation (AI L1 / agent chains)
| Chain | Peak TPS | Circ-M-cap | FDV | Validators | Unlock drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASI (Sui-based) | 297 k | $1.55 B | $4.4 B | 113 | High |
| Solana | 2 000 | $78.7 B | $88.5 B | 1 400+ | Low |
| Aptos | 160 k | $2.8 B | $5.0 B | 140 | High |
| Bittensor | 130 | $1.9 B | $4.1 B | N/A | Inflationary mining |
ASI’s circ-cap sits mid-pack, but FDV is leaner than Aptos/Solana — upside depends on demand outrunning unlocks.
9 | Market structure & price outlook
9.1 TradingView widget
9.2 Technical view (daily candles, UTC)
Check-values (dual source cross-check)
| Metric | TradingView (BINANCE) | CoinMarketCap | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD high | $1.65 (06 Jan 25) | $1.65 (06 Jan) | 0 % |
| YTD low | $0.346 (07 Apr 25) | $0.346 (07 Apr) | 0 % |
| Current | $0.652 (06 Jul 25) | $0.649 (06 Jul) | –0.5 % |
| 200-DMA | $0.93 (TV) | $0.92 (CMC) | –1.1 % |
No discrepancies > 1 %.
Key levels (UTC daily highs/lows)
- $0.346 — 07 Apr 25 YTD floor.
- $0.52 — 17 May bear-trap low turned support.
- $0.93 — 200-DMA cluster (acts as range mid).
- $1.10 — 12 Mar swing high / prior 50-DMA cross.
- $1.65 — YTD high (06 Jan).
- $3.47 — ATH (28 Mar 2024). (coinbase.com)
Momentum gauges (06 Jul 25)
OBV flat since mid-June; RSI-14 = 46 (neutral).
Bias — neutral-to-slightly-bullish into Q4 if daily closes reclaim $0.93 and CEX+DEX vol > $100 M. Failure to defend $0.52 likely drags price to retest $0.346. NFA.
10 | Catalyst tracker
| Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|
| Rainbow roll-up main-net ✔️ | Unlocks > 2 % circ. without matching demand |
| Validator set ≥ 200 | Critical Move-VM exploit |
| ASI-1 Mini enterprise adoption | CEX delistings / liquidity exodus |
| TVL > $3 B & liquid-staking > 55 % | Macro risk-off / BTC < $55 k |
11 | Risk-mitigation checklist
- Monitor unlock calendar (TokenUnlocks / CryptoRank).
- Watch validator power — flag any single node > 10 % stake.
- Size orders — keep on-chain swaps < $200 k; split CEX fills.
- Track gas-burn vs. supply inflation — falling burn + heavy unlocks = dilution.
- Follow Move-lang CVE feed; ensure dApps you use patch promptly.
12 | 🏁 Bottom line
The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance fuses Fetch.ai’s agents, SingularityNET’s AGI stack and Ocean’s data markets into one token economy. With 1.5 M daily wallets, a live Web3-native LLM (ASI-1 Mini), and an object-oriented L1 pushing 300 k TPS in test bursts, ASI sits at the crossroads of AI and crypto hype.
Upside case — fee-burn plus roll-up revenue and liquid-staking soak up the unlock flow; validator decentralisation delivers trust.
Downside case — monthly unlocks and stake concentration cap rallies, while thin Move-audit coverage leaves tail risk.
Verdict: ASI is a leveraged bet on open-source AGI. Attractive for traders surfacing the AI narrative; long-term positions should be sized around the unlock curve and monitored for decentralisation progress.
13 | Disclaimer
This report aggregates public sources as of 06 Jul 2025. Figures can change quickly; project teams or readers may contact ddref@credofida.com for corrections or an updated review. This is not investment advice.