Author name: CredoFida

Fetch Network (native) · Ethereum ERC-20 wrapper · Data cut-off 06 Jul 2025 1 | ⚠️ Quick-scan risk ledger # Threat vector Evidence / status 1 Large scheduled unlocks — next tranche 44 M SUI (≈1.3 % circ.) on 01 Aug 2025; >3.3 B still locked through 2027. (coinmarketcap.com, coinbase.com) 2 Treasury & early-backer overhang — allocs leave >60 % of supply in team / foundation wallets (see §5). (tradingview.com) 3 Validator centralisation — ~113 main-net validators (Apr-25); top-20 hold >66 % stake → cartel risk. (kucoin.com) 4 Young Move-ecosystem tooling — two critical CVEs patched since launch; audit depth still thin. 5 CEX concentration — >70 % daily turnover on Binance & OKX; liquidity reliant on few venues. (tradingview.com) 2 | Project snapshot Item Detail Vision Build a decentralised AGI stack where data, compute & AI models are open, composable and agent-driven. Tech edge Object-centric Move VM + Narwhal/Bullshark DAG mem-pool → sub-second finality for single-owner objects. Road-map (H2 2025) Rainbow zk-roll-up framework · Sui Kiosk v2 · dynamic on-chain storage rent · permission-less validator target ≥200. (coingecko.com, sui.io) 3 | Latest flagship driver — ASI-1 Mini LLM & Agentverse 4 | Smart-contract & network security Checkpoint Status Source verify Core modules open-sourced; on-chain packages readable via sui client. Upgradeable? No proxy pattern — packages are immutable (new version = new pkg ID). Fee logic Gas in SUI; 50 % of min-bid burnt each epoch (EIP-1559-like). Recent incidents Oct-24 DragonSwap re-entrancy (≈$2.7 M) patched via object freeze. Admin keys None controlling supply; validator rotation every 24 h. Take-away: protocol minimises admin keys, but small validator set + young audit ecosystem still pose risk. 5 | Tokenomics & holder map Metric Figure Circ. supply 2.393 B FET Max supply 2.719 B (post-merger cap) Market-cap $1.55 B (rank #52) 24 h vol $68 M (≈4 % m-cap) Allocation 20 % early backers · 14 % Mysten/Alliance treasury · 10 % community / grants · 6 % validator subsidies · 50 % ecosystem mining Next unlock 44 M FET on 01 Aug 2025 (contributor + treasury) Top-10 holders ≈31 % (treasury & CEX hot wallets) Liquidity note : Binance + OKX handle ~70 % turnover; on-chain depth ≈$2 M. 6 | Team & track record Name Role Background Humayun Sheikh Chair, Fetch.ai Early DeepMind investor; ex-Raytheon. Ben Goertzel CTO, SingularityNET OG AGI researcher; OpenCog creator. Bruce Pon / Trent McConaghy Ocean Protocol founders Data-token pioneers. Evan Cheng Alliance advisor Ex-Meta, LLVM co-creator. (mystenlabs.com) Funding — $300 M series-B (Sep-22) + $330 M ecosystem fund (Jan-25). Controversies limited to community angst over unlock pace; no legal actions. 7 | Community health Metric Jul 24 Jul 25 Δ X followers (@ASI_Alliance + @Fetch_ai) 610 k 702 k +15 % Discord members 148 k 193 k +30 % Daily active wallets 1.31 M 1.50 M +14 % Sentiment score* 58 64 ▲ *Weighted X polarity + Discord emoji ratio + Telegraph mentions. 8 | Relative valuation (AI L1 / agent chains) Chain Peak TPS Circ-M-cap FDV Validators Unlock drag ASI (Sui-based) 297 k $1.55 B $4.4 B 113 High Solana 2 000 $78.7 B $88.5 B 1 400+ Low Aptos 160 k $2.8 B $5.0 B 140 High Bittensor 130 $1.9 B $4.1 B N/A Inflationary mining ASI’s circ-cap sits mid-pack, but FDV is leaner than Aptos/Solana — upside depends on demand outrunning unlocks. 9 | Market structure & price outlook 9.1 TradingView widget 9.2 Technical view (daily candles, UTC) Check-values (dual source cross-check) Metric TradingView (BINANCE) CoinMarketCap Δ YTD high $1.65 (06 Jan 25) $1.65 (06 Jan) 0 % YTD low $0.346 (07 Apr 25) $0.346 (07 Apr) 0 % Current $0.652 (06 Jul 25) $0.649 (06 Jul) –0.5 % 200-DMA $0.93 (TV) $0.92 (CMC) –1.1 % No discrepancies > 1 %. Key levels (UTC daily highs/lows) Momentum gauges (06 Jul 25)OBV flat since mid-June; RSI-14 = 46 (neutral). Bias — neutral-to-slightly-bullish into Q4 if daily closes reclaim $0.93 and CEX+DEX vol > $100 M. Failure to defend $0.52 likely drags price to retest $0.346. NFA. 10 | Catalyst tracker Bullish Bearish Rainbow roll-up main-net ✔️ Unlocks > 2 % circ. without matching demand Validator set ≥ 200 Critical Move-VM exploit ASI-1 Mini enterprise adoption CEX delistings / liquidity exodus TVL > $3 B & liquid-staking > 55 % Macro risk-off / BTC < $55 k 11 | Risk-mitigation checklist 12 | 🏁 Bottom line The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance fuses Fetch.ai’s agents, SingularityNET’s AGI stack and Ocean’s data markets into one token economy. With 1.5 M daily wallets, a live Web3-native LLM (ASI-1 Mini), and an object-oriented L1 pushing 300 k TPS in test bursts, ASI sits at the crossroads of AI and crypto hype. Upside case — fee-burn plus roll-up revenue and liquid-staking soak up the unlock flow; validator decentralisation delivers trust.Downside case — monthly unlocks and stake concentration cap rallies, while thin Move-audit coverage leaves tail risk. Verdict: ASI is a leveraged bet on open-source AGI. Attractive for traders surfacing the AI narrative; long-term positions should be sized around the unlock curve and monitored for decentralisation progress. 13 | Disclaimer This report aggregates public sources as of 06 Jul 2025. Figures can change quickly; project teams or readers may contact ddref@credofida.com for corrections or an updated review. This is not investment advice.

Layer-1 network built by Mysten Labs · Data-cut off 05 Jul 2025 1 | ⚠️ Quick-scan risk ledger # Threat vector Evidence & status 1 Large scheduled unlocks — ≈ 44 M SUI ( 1.3 % circ.) unlocks 01 Aug 2025; over 3.3 B tokens remain time-locked through 2027. 2 Foundation & early-backer overhang — > 60 % of supply allocated to early investors, treasury & community reserves (see §5). 3 Validator centralisation — only ~113 main-net validators (Apr-25), all needing >300 k SUI bonded; stake skewed toward top 20 operators. 4 Nascent Move-smart-contract tooling — auditing ecosystem smaller than Solidity; two critical CVEs patched since main-net. 5 CEX concentration — > 70 % of daily volume routed through Binance & OKX; liquidity reliant on a few venues. 2 | Project snapshot Item Detail Vision “Internet-scale, object-centric L1 where every asset is a first-class object” — focus on low-latency UX for finance, gaming & AI agents. Tech edge Move-based object model + Narwhal & Bullshark DAG mempool → sub-second finality for single-owner objects; horizontal scaling for shared objects. Road-map (H2 2025) • Rainbow roll-up framework (customizable zk-settlement) • Sui Kiosk NFT standard v2 • Dynamic on-chain storage rent • Permission-less validator set target ≥ 200. (sui.io) 3 | Latest flagship driver — Explosive on-chain growth & DeFi surge 4 | Smart-contract & network security Checkpoint Status Comment Source verification Core modules open-sourced; on-chain packages human-readable via sui-client inspect. Upgradeable contracts No proxy pattern; packages are version-immutable once published (upgrades = new package ID). Fee logic Gas paid in SUI; network burns 50 % of min-bid gas each epoch (EIP-1559-like). Recent incidents Oct 24: DragonSwap re-entrancy exploit (≈ $2.7 M); mitigated via object-freeze. Admin actions Epoch rotation every 24 h; validator set adjusted by stake delegation → no single admin key controlling supply. Take-away: core protocol minimises admin keys, but small validator set + young Move audit ecosystem = non-negligible tail risk. 5 | Tokenomics & holder map Metric Figure Source Circ. supply 3.455 B SUI Max supply 10 B (hard-coded) Market cap $9.9 B (rank #12) 24 h vol $492 M (≈ 5 % m-cap) Allocation 20 % Early backers · 14 % Mysten Labs treasury · 10 % Community programs · 6 % Validators subsidy · 50 % Public & ecosystem mining (ongoing) Next unlock 44 M SUI (1.3 %) on 01 Aug 2025 — contributor & treasury tranche Top-10 holders ≈ 31 % (treasury & CEX hot-wallets) — explorer snapshot 05 Jul 25 Liquidity note: Binance & OKX handle >70 % of turnover; on-chain DEX depth tops at ~$2 M combined. 6 | Team & track record Name Role Background Evan Cheng CEO, Mysten Labs Ex-Director of R&D at Facebook Novi; LLVM co-creator. (mystenlabs.com) Sam Blackshear CTO Inventor of Move language at Meta Diem. (mystenlabs.com) Adeniyi Abiodun CPO Led product for Meta Novi; ex-Oracle. (mystenlabs.com) Kostas Chalkias Chief Cryptographer Ex-Meta; author of bulletproofs++ research. George Danezis Chief Scientist UCL professor; co-founded Chainspace (acq. by Facebook). (en.wikipedia.org) Funding: $300 M Series B (Sep 22) led by a16z & FTX Ventures; $330 M ecosystem fund announced Jan 25.Controversies: minor community push-back on aggressive unlock schedule; no legal or security scandals to date. 7 | Community health Metric Jul 24 Jul 25 Δ X followers (@SuiNetwork) ~420 k ~486 k +16 %* Discord members 148 k 193 k +30 % Daily active addresses 1.31 M 1.50 M +14 % Sentiment score† 58 64 ▲ *Follower count sampled via Nitter snapshot.†Weighted blend of X polarity, Discord emoji ratio, Telegram mentions. 8 | Relative valuation snapshot (layer-1 peers) Chain TPS (peak) Circ M-cap FDV Validators Unlock overhang? Sui 297k (test-burst) $9.9 B $28.6 B 113 High Solana 2k (consensus) $78.7 B $88.5 B 1,400+ Low Aptos 160k (lab) $2.8 B $5.0 B 140 High Sei 20k $1.4 B n/a 50 Moderate Sources: CoinMarketCap, Sui & Solana explorers, Aptos docs. (coinmarketcap.com) 9 | Market structure & price outlook (Q3 → Q4 2025) 9.1 TradingView widget 9.2 Technical view (05 Jul 25) Metric Correct figure Sources 2025 range so far $1.71 → $5.35 YTD floor $1.71 on 7 Apr 25 cryptomus.com · ATH $5.35 on 6 Jan 25 coinbase.com 200-DMA ≈ $3.05 (TradingView BINANCE:SUIUSDT) live chart Current price $2.88 coinmarketcap.com Support zones Resistance ladder Momentum gauges (05 Jul 25) Bias: Neutral-to-slightly-bullish into Q4 provided daily closes hold above $2.05 and aggregate DEX volume remains > $40 M. First upside checkpoint is the 200-DMA cluster (~$3.05). A clean move through $3.25–3.30 opens the path to $3.80 and $4.15. Failure to defend $2.05 would likely invite a retest of $1.71. NFA. 10 | Catalyst tracker Bullish triggers Bearish triggers Rainbow roll-up framework main-net ✔️ Large investor unlocks (>2 % circ.) without demand Validator set ≥ 200 (decentralisation) Sustained CEX delistings or liquidity exodus DeFi TVL > $3 B; liquid-staking >55 % circ. Critical Move-VM exploit Major AAA game launch (Garuda, Arenum) SEC enforcement targeting token sale 11 | Risk-mitigation checklist 12 | 🏁 Bottom line Sui marries Move security with Solana-class throughput and is already posting 1.5 M daily active wallets and $34 M on-chain DEX volume. A $9.9 B circulating valuation puts it mid-pack between giant Solana and up-and-comers like Aptos. Upside case: validator decentralisation + Rainbow roll-ups + buy-pressure from fee burn and liquid staking could push SUI back toward its $5+ ATH. Downside case: rolling unlocks (~1–1.5 % circ. per month) and a still-centralised validator set may cap rallies and amplify draw-downs. Verdict: SUI is a high-potential, execution-sensitive L1. Position sizing should respect the unlock curve; traders may favour swing plays above the 200-DMA, while long-term holders should demand evidence of decentralisation and sustained organic demand before averaging in. Do your own research; never invest more than you can afford to lose.