https://hyperliquid.xyz/
Native L1 («Hyperliquid Chain») · ERC-20 bridge wrappers live · Data cut-off 08 Jul 2025
1 | ⚠️ Quick-scan risk ledger
| # | Threat vector | Current evidence |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dilution overhang – only 33 % of 1 B HYPE is liquid; 38.8 % reserved for emissions & rewards, 23.8 % for contributors. Unlocks begin again 29 Nov 2025. | |
| 2 | Validator centralisation – main-net runs 16 active validators (target ≥ 200); top-4 hold > 50 % stake. | |
| 3 | Order-book dominance risk – matching engine & sequencer code is open-source but still maintained by a single core team (Hyper Foundation); potential upgrade “surprises”. | |
| 4 | Bridge/liquidity fragmentation – HyperEVM bridge + multiple CEX listings → overlapping order books, arbitrage risk if oracles desync. | |
| 5 | Regulatory unknowns – on-chain 50× leverage perps & U.S. traders geo-block only at front-end level. |
2 | Detailed project snapshot
| Component | Details |
|---|---|
| Vision | “Blockchain to house all finance” – deliver CEX-grade speed & depth fully on-chain. |
| Core products | • Perpetuals CLOB (50× leverage) • Spot order-book (HIP-1 assets) • Vaults (MM & liquidation strategies) • HyperEVM (EVM layer interoperating with native L1) |
| Architecture | Custom HyperBFT consensus (Tendermint- derived, < 400 ms block time) + fully on-chain matching engine; every order/cancel settles on L1. |
| Road-map (H2 2025) | • HyperEVM main-net phase-2 (permission-less token listings) • HIP-2 permission-less staking derivatives • Validator set expansion → ≥ 64 • Spot AMM “HyperSwap” for small caps. |
3 | Latest flagship driver / growth narrative
- HyperEVM launch (Apr 2025) – allows ERC-20 style contracts to natively interact with the CLOB; opens door to AMMs, structured products.
- HIP-1 spot listings (Jun 2025) – 28 projects bridged in first month; spot order-book fees already $62 M / 30 d .
- Native staking (Jan 2025) – > 300 M HYPE staked within 48 h of launch, yielding 6-8 % APR (validator commission 5 %).
- Metrics momentum:
- 24 h Perp volume: $12.3 B (rank #2 DEX perps)
- Open interest: $10.1 B ATH posted 05 Jul 25
- 30-day fees: $64 M → outranks Solana & Ethereum DEX fees for the period
4 | Smart-contract / chain security
| Check | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Source-code | Core L1 & HyperEVM repos MIT-licensed on GitHub. | |
| Upgradeability | Governance-gated; chain params change via on-chain proposal → 14-day timelock. | |
| Gas / fee logic | Gas paid in HYPE; 30 % of fees auto-burn, 70 % → validator rewards. | |
| Recent critical incidents | None since main-net (Nov 2024). Minor API rate-limit exploit Jan 2025 patched within 2 h. | |
| Third-party audits | Spearbit (L1), Trail-of-Bits (HyperEVM pre-launch) – both public. |
Take-away: code transparency good; operational centralisation (small validator/quorum) still a top risk.
5 | Tokenomics & holder map
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Max supply | 1 B HYPE |
| Circ. supply | 333.9 M (33.4 %) |
| Market-cap | $12.99 B (FDV $38.9 B) |
| Allocation | 31 % airdrop · 38.8 % future community rewards · 23.8 % core contributors · 6 % Foundation · 0.3 % grants |
| Next unlock | 216 k HYPE (0.02 %) on 29 Nov 25 (vesting cliff) |
| Top-10 wallets | ≈ 28 % (Foundation, CEX hots, two MM vaults) |
Liquidity: deepest pairs Hyperliquid HYPE/USDC & Gate.io HYPE/USDT; combined depth ±2 % ≈ $55 M. External CEX volume ≈ $295 M / 24 h (CMC).
6 | Team & track record
| Person | Role | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff Yan (alias “Jeff”) | Co-founder · CEO Hyperliquid Labs | Ex-Google SWE & HRT quant; Harvard CS 2018; outspoken “no-VC” stance. |
| “iliensinc” (pseud.) | Co-founder · CTO | Ex-Citadel execution-engineer; co-architect HyperBFT. |
| Core team | ≈ 10 devs from MIT, Caltech, Nuro & Airtable. | |
| Notable partners | Mantle (bridging), Wormhole, Sqwid (structured perps), Wintermute (MM). |
Controversies: none significant; community occasionally questions anonymous co-founder & heavy self-custody of build pipeline.
7 | Community health
| Metric | Jul 24 | Jul 25 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| X followers (@HyperliquidX) | 410 k | 512 k | +25 % |
| Discord members | 112 k | 165 k | +47 % |
| Avg. daily traders | 42 k | 61 k | +45 % |
| Sentiment score* | 57 | 66 | ▲ |
*Composite: X polarity + Discord emoji ratio + unique wallet count.
8 | Relative valuation vs. peer perps DEXs
| Project | Chain type | 24 h Vol | Circ-Cap | FDV | Fee burn? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid | Custom L1 | $12.3 B | $13 B | $38.9 B | Yes (30 %) |
| dYdX v4 | Cosmos L1 | $1.9 B | $1.8 B | $3.5 B | 100 % burn |
| GMX v2 | Arbitrum | $580 M | $481 M | $644 M | 30 % buy-back |
| Aevo | Optimism | $430 M | $990 M | $2.8 B | No |
Hyperliquid leads by an order of magnitude on on-chain vol, but its FDV already prices in that lead.
9 | Market structure & price outlook
9.1 TradingView widget (Bybit HYPE/USDT perp)
9.2 Technical view (daily, UTC)
Check-values
| Metric | TradingView | CoinMarketCap | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD high | $45.64 – 16 Jun 25 | $45.57 – 16 Jun | 0.15 % |
| YTD low | $9.39 – 13 Mar 25 | $9.39 – 13 Mar | 0 % |
| Current | $38.94 | $38.90 | –0.1 % |
| 200-DMA | $24.6 | $25.3 | +2.7 % – Data discrepancy noted – TV more liquid |
Key levels
| Level | Date (UTC) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| $9.39 | 13 Mar 25 | YTD floor / post-ICO shakeout |
| $26.48 | 21 May 25 | Pivot-low before parabolic run |
| $31.50 | 21 Jun 25 | Post-ATH higher low |
| $38.90 | 08 Jul 25 | Spot price / range mid |
| $45.64 | 16 Jun 25 | YTD&ATH |
| $54.00 | – | 1.272 ext. of Jun rally |
Momentum (08 Jul) – OBV cooling; RSI-14 = 48 (neutral).
Bias – range-bound $31.5 – 45.6. Break & daily close over $45.6 opens $54 fib-ext. Failure to hold $31.5 risks swift slide to $26.5. NFA.
10 | Catalyst tracker
| Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|
| HyperEVM phase-2 (permission-less tokens) | Big unlock batches w/ low burn |
| Validator expansion ≥ 64 by Q4 | Sequencer outage / order-book halt |
| Spot AMM “HyperSwap” launch | SEC/CFTC perps crackdown |
| Sustained > $15 B daily vol | Major CEX lists competing HYPE perp with rebates |
11 | Risk-mitigation checklist
- Watch unlock schedule – TokenUnlocks calendar; hedge around Nov 29 release.
- Validator power monitor – alert if any node > 12 % stake.
- Size carefully – on-chain swaps < $200 k; split CEX orders.
- Track fee burn vs. issuance – weekly ratio < 0.3 signals inflating supply.
- Follow Hyper Foundation Git commits – flag consensus or matching-engine upgrades for review.
12 | 🏁 Bottom line
Hyperliquid has executed where most DeFi perps failed: CEX-grade UX fully on-chain and volume that dwarfs every other DEX. The HYPE token captures fee burn, staking yield and governance, but also carries unlock dilution and validator-cartel risks.
For traders, HYPE is a high-beta AI/infra narrative coin with deep liquidity and frequent volatility. For longer-term investors, conviction hinges on:
- successful rollout of HyperEVM dApp layer,
- expansion of the validator set, and
- fee burn pacing unlock emissions.
Size positions with those moving parts in mind.
13 | Disclaimer
Figures are sourced from public data feeds as of 08 Jul 2025 and may change rapidly. If you identify outdated or incorrect information, or you represent the Hyperliquid project and wish to provide updates, please email ddref@credofida.com to request a revision. This report is not financial advice.